The effect of a political crisis on performance of community forests and protected areas in Madagascar.

Understanding the effectiveness of conservation interventions during times of political instability is important given how much of the world's biodiversity is concentrated in politically fragile nations. Here, we investigate the effect of a political crisis on the relative performance of community managed forests versus protected areas in terms of reducing deforestation in Madagascar, a biodiversity hotspot. We use remotely sensed data and statistical matching within an event study design to isolate the effect of the crisis and post-crisis period on performance. Annual rates of deforestation accelerated at the end of the crisis and were higher in community forests than in protected areas. After controlling for differences in location and other confounding variables, we find no difference in performance during the crisis, but community-managed forests performed worse in post-crisis years. These findings suggest that, as a political crisis subsides and deforestation pressures intensify, community-based conservation may be less resilient than state protection.

Mapping the planet's critical areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people.

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature's contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature's contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature's contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

Songbirds initiate migratory flights synchronously relative to civil dusk.

BACKGROUND: Each spring and fall billions of songbirds depart on nocturnal migrations across the globe. Theory suggests that songbirds should depart on migration shortly after sunset to maximize their potential for nightly flight duration or to time departure with the emergence of celestial cues needed for orientation and navigation. Although captive studies have found that songbirds depart during a narrow window of time after sunset, observational studies have found that wild birds depart later and more asynchronously relative to sunset than predicted. METHODS: We used coded radio tags and automated radio-telemetry to estimate the time that nearly 400 individuals from nine songbird species departed their breeding or wintering grounds across North America. We also assessed whether each species was most likely beginning long-distance migratory flights at departure or instead first making non-migratory regional flights. We then explored variation in nocturnal departure time by post-departure movement type, species, age, sex, and season. RESULTS: We found that 90% of individuals from species that were likely initiating long-distance migratory flights departed within 69 min of civil dusk, regardless of species, season, age, or sex. By contrast, species that likely first made non-migratory regional movements away from the migratory destination departed later and more asynchronously throughout the night. Regardless of post-departure movement type, 98% of individuals departed after civil dusk but otherwise showed no preference in relation to twilight phase. CONCLUSIONS: Although the presence of celestial orientation cues at civil dusk may set a starting point for departure each night, the fact that species likely beginning long-distance migration departed earlier and more synchronously relative to civil dusk than those first making non-migratory regional movements is consistent with the hypothesis that departing promptly after civil dusk functions to maximize the potential for nightly flight duration and distance. By studying the onset of migration, our study provides baseline information about departure decisions that may enhance our understanding of departure timing throughout migration.

Atmospheric pressure predicts probability of departure for migratory songbirds.

BACKGROUND: Weather can have both delayed and immediate impacts on animal populations, and species have evolved behavioral adaptions to respond to weather conditions. Weather has long been hypothesized to affect the timing and intensity of avian migration, and radar studies have demonstrated strong correlations between weather and broad-scale migration patterns. How weather affects individual decisions about the initiation of migratory flights, particularly at the beginning of migration, remains uncertain. METHODS: Here, we combine automated radio telemetry data from four species of songbirds collected at five breeding and wintering sites in North America with hourly weather data from a global weather model. We use these data to determine how wind profit, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and cloud cover affect probability of departure from breeding and wintering sites. RESULTS: We found that the probability of departure was related to changes in atmospheric pressure, almost completely regardless of species, season, or location. Individuals were more likely to depart on nights when atmospheric pressure had been rising over the past 24 h, which is predictive of fair weather over the next several days. By contrast, wind profit, precipitation, and cloud cover were each only informative predictors of departure probability in a single species. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that individual birds actively use weather information to inform decision-making regarding the initiation of departure from the breeding and wintering grounds. We propose that birds likely choose which date to depart on migration in a hierarchical fashion with weather not influencing decision-making until after the departure window has already been narrowed down by other ultimate and proximate factors.

Network structure of avian mixed-species flocks decays with elevation and latitude across the Andes.

Birds in mixed-species flocks benefit from greater foraging efficiency and reduced predation, but also face costs related to competition and activity matching. Because this cost-benefit trade-off is context-dependent (e.g. abiotic conditions and habitat quality), the structure of flocks is expected to vary along elevational, latitudinal and disturbance gradients. Specifically, we predicted that the connectivity and cohesion of flocking networks would (i) decline towards tropical latitudes and lower elevations, where competition and activity matching costs are higher, and (ii) increase with lower forest cover and greater human disturbance. We analysed the structure of 84 flock networks across the Andes and assessed the effect of elevation, latitude, forest cover and human disturbance on network characteristics. We found that Andean flocks are overall open-membership systems (unstructured), though the extent of network structure varied across gradients. Elevation was the main predictor of structure, with more connected and less modular flocks upslope. As expected, flocks in areas with higher forest cover were less cohesive, with better defined flock subtypes. Flocks also varied across latitude and disturbance gradients as predicted, but effect sizes were small. Our findings indicate that the unstructured nature of Andean flocks might arise as a strategy to cope with harsh environmental conditions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Mixed-species groups and aggregations: shaping ecological and behavioural patterns and processes'.

Protected area planning to conserve biodiversity in an uncertain future.

Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they are vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land-use intensification, and climate change. We used a novel hierarchical optimization approach to identify priority areas for expanding the global protected area system that explicitly accounted for such risks while maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. To incorporate risk categories, we built on the minimum set problem, where the objective is to reach species distribution protection targets while accounting for 1 constraint, such as land cost or area. We expanded this approach to include multiple objectives accounting for risk in the problem formulation by treating each risk layer as a separate objective in the problem formulation. Reducing exposure to these risks required expanding the area of the global protected area system by 1.6% while still meeting conservation targets. Incorporating risks from weak governance drove the greatest changes in spatial priorities for protection, and incorporating risks from climate change required the largest increase (2.52%) in global protected area. Conserving wide-ranging species required countries with relatively strong governance to protect more land when they bordered nations with comparatively weak governance. Our results underscore the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination and demonstrate how risk can be efficiently incorporated into conservation planning. Planeación de las áreas protegidas para conservar la biodiversidad en un futuro incierto.

Aunque las áreas protegidas son un instrumento clave para la conservación, no dejan de ser vulnerables a los riesgos asociados a una gestión pobre, la intensificación del uso de suelo y al cambio climático. Usamos una estrategia novedosa de optimización jerárquica para identificar las áreas prioritarias para la expansión del sistema global de áreas protegidas. La estrategia consideró de manera explícita los riesgos mencionados y también maximizó la protección de todas las especies conocidas de vertebrados terrestres. Para incorporar a las categorías de riesgo partimos del mínimo problema establecido, en donde el objetivo es lograr los objetivos de protección de la distribución de especies mientras se considera sólo una restricción, como el costo o área del suelo. Expandimos esta estrategia para que incluyera varios objetivos que consideraran el riesgo desde la formulación del problema mediante el manejo de cada nivel de riesgo como un objetivo aparte durante la formulación del problema. La reducción de la exposición a estos riesgos requirió que se expandiera el área total del sistema global de áreas protegidas en un 1.6% y así todavía cumplir con los objetivos de conservación. La incorporación de riesgos a partir de una gestión pobre fue el principal impulsor de cambios en las prioridades espaciales para la protección, mientras que la incorporación de riesgos a partir del cambio climático requirió el mayor incremento (2.52%) del área protegida a nivel mundial. La conservación de especies con distribución amplia requirió que los países con una gestión relativamente fuerte protegieran más suelo al tener fronteras con países con una gestión pobre en comparación son la suya. Nuestros resultados destacan la necesidad de una coordinación entre jurisdicciones y demuestran cómo puede incorporarse el riesgo de manera exitosa a la planeación de la conservación.

Migratory birds with delayed spring departure migrate faster but pay the costs.

Migratory birds that experience poor overwintering conditions are often late to arrive at the breeding grounds, which is known to depress individual fitness. Despite the importance of this carryover effect, few studies have investigated how individuals can modify migratory behaviors en route to reduce delays on arrival and whether accelerating migration incurs survival costs. To examine this, we used Motus Wildlife Tracking System to track individual American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) as they migrated from wintering grounds in Southwest Jamaica through Florida en route to their breeding areas. We leveraged long-term data on spring departure timing and breeding latitude to quantify the relative departure dates (early vs. delayed) of tagged individuals, which we then related to individual migration rates and apparent annual survival. Compared to those initiating migration earlier, individuals that departed relatively late (10-day delay) migrated at a 43% faster rate, which decreased their annual survival by 6.3%. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that spring migrants use speed to compensate for departure delays despite incurring survival costs. This compensatory behavior may potentially underly differential survival during spring migration and may be particularly widespread across short-lived migratory birds generally considered time-constrained.

Opportunities for the conservation of migratory birds to benefit threatened resident vertebrates in the Neotropics.

Neotropical countries receive financing and effort from temperate nations to aid the conservation of migratory species that move between temperate and tropical regions. If allocated strategically, these resources could simultaneously contribute to other conservation initiatives. In this study, we use novel distribution maps to show how those resources could aid planning for the recovery of threatened resident vertebrates.Using eBird-based relative abundance estimates, we first identified areas with high richness of Neotropical migrant landbirds of conservation concern (23 species) during the stationary non-breeding period. Within these areas, we then identified threatened species richness, projected forest loss and conducted a prioritization for 1,261 red-listed vertebrates using Terrestrial Area-of-Habitat maps.Richness for migrants was greatest along a corridor from the Yucatan peninsula south to the northern Andes but also included south-west Mexico and Hispaniola. Protected areas account for 22% of this region while 21% is at risk of forest loss. Within this focal region for migrants, all four vertebrate groups showed hotspots of threatened species richness along the west and east Andean slopes. Taxa-specific hotspots included montane areas of southern Mexico and central Guatemala (amphibians/reptiles) and the entire east slope of the Colombian East Andes (mammals).Our prioritization highlighted several areas of importance for conservation due to high threatened species richness and projected forest loss including (a) the Pacific dry forests of south-west Mexico, (b) montane regions of northern Central America and (c) the west Andean slope of Colombia and Ecuador. At a landscape scale in southern Colombia, we show how conservation efforts for six Neotropical migrants could benefit 56 threatened residents that share a similar elevational range. Synthesis and applications. Funding and effort for migratory bird conservation also has potential to benefit threatened resident vertebrates in the Neotropics. Our study highlights how novel, high-resolution information on species distributions and risk of forest loss can be integrated to identify priority areas for the two groups at regional and landscape scales. The approach and data can be further modified for more specific goals, such as within-country initiatives.

Los países neotropicales reciben financiamiento y recursos esfuerzos de países templados para ayudar a la conservación de las aves migratorias que se mueven entre estas dos regiones. Si se asignan estratégicamente, estos recursos podrían beneficiar simultáneamente a otras iniciativas de conservación. En esta investigación, usamos novedosos mapas de distribución para mostrar cómo esos recursos podrían ayudar a planificar la conservación de especies residentes amenazadas.Utilizando estimaciones de abundancia de eBird, delineamos la Región Focal con la mayor riqueza de aves migratorias neotropicales de interés para la conservación durante el periodo invernal (23 especies). Dentro de esta región, determinamos la riqueza de especies residentes amenazadas, la proyección de pérdida de bosque, y realizamos una priorización para 1261 especies de vertebrados incluidos en la lista roja de la IUCN utilizando mapas del área de hábitat terrestre.En la Región Focal, la riqueza de aves migratorias fue mayor a lo largo de un corredor desde el sur de la península de Yucatán hasta el norte de los Andes, y en el suroeste de México y la isla La Española. Las áreas protegidas representan 22% de esta región mientras que el 21% está en riesgo de pérdida de bosque. Dentro de la Región Focal para las aves migratorias, todos los vertebrados residentes mostraron puntos de mayor riqueza de especies amenazadas en los Andes occidentales y orientales. Las regiones con mayor riqueza para taxones específicos incluyeron las montañas del sur de México y del centro de Guatemala (anfibios y reptiles) y la vertiente oriental de la cordillera oriental de Colombia (mamíferos).La priorización destacó varias áreas de importancia para la conservación debido a la alta riqueza de especies amenazadas y a la pérdida de bosque proyectada incluyendo 1) los bosques secos del Pacífico del suroeste de México, 2) las regiones montañosas del norte de Centroamérica y 3) la vertiente occidental de los Andes Occidental de Colombia y Ecuador. A escala del paisaje en el sur de Colombia, mostramos cómo los esfuerzos para la conservación de 6 aves migratorias podrían beneficiar a 56 especies residentes amenazadas que comparten un rango altitudinal similar. Síntesis y aplicaciones. La financiación y esfuerzos para la conservación de las aves migratorias tienen el potencial a beneficiar a los vertebrados residentes amenazados en el Neotrópico. Nuestro estudio resalta como se puede integrar información novedosa y de alta resolución acerca de la distribución de especies y el riesgo de pérdida de bosques para identificar áreas prioritarias para los dos grupos a escala regional y paisajística. El enfoque y los datos se pueden modificar para objetivos más específicos, como por ejemplo iniciativas dentro de cada país.

Coping with novelty across an urban mosaic: Provisioning latency increases closer to roads and is associated with species-specific reproductive success in two urban adapters.

Most research on urban avian ecology has focused on population- and community-level phenomena, whereas fewer studies have examined how urbanization affects individual behavioral responses to a sudden and novel stimulus, and how those translate to fitness. We measured between-individual variation in provisioning latency in two urban adapters - great tits and blue tits - in response to an infrared camera installed in the nestbox, encountered when offspring in the nest were at the peak of food demand (9-10-days old). For each nestbox, we quantified urbanization as intensity in human activity, distance to road and proportion of impervious surface area. In both species, provisioning latency increased closer to roads. Moreover, increased provisioning latency when exposed to a novel object was associated with higher reproductive success in great tits whose nestboxes were surrounded by high amounts of impervious surface. In contrast, increased provisioning latency was consistently associated with lower reproductive success in blue tits. Our results suggest that provisioning latency changes in relation to the environment surrounding the nest, and may be context- and species-specific when exposed to a novel stimulus, such as a novel object in the nest. To better understand the role of initial behavioral responses towards novelty across an individual's lifetime and, ultimately, its impact on fitness in the urban mosaic, further research explicitly testing different behavioral responses across the entire breeding cycle in wild model systems is needed.

Conservation cobenefits from air pollution regulation: Evidence from birds.

Massive wildlife losses over the past 50 y have brought new urgency to identifying both the drivers of population decline and potential solutions. We provide large-scale evidence that air pollution, specifically ozone, is associated with declines in bird abundance in the United States. We show that an air pollution regulation limiting ozone precursors emissions has delivered substantial benefits to bird conservation. Our estimates imply that air quality improvements over the past 4 decades have stemmed the decline in bird populations, averting the loss of 1.5 billion birds, ∼20% of current totals. Our results highlight that in addition to protecting human health, air pollution regulations have previously unrecognized and unquantified conservation cobenefits.

Parental benefits and offspring costs reflect parent-offspring conflict over the age of fledging among songbirds.

Parent-offspring conflict has explained a variety of ecological phenomena across animal taxa, but its role in mediating when songbirds fledge remains controversial. Specifically, ecologists have long debated the influence of songbird parents on the age of fledging: Do parents manipulate offspring into fledging to optimize their own fitness or do offspring choose when to leave? To provide greater insight into parent-offspring conflict over fledging age in songbirds, we compared nesting and postfledging survival rates across 18 species from eight studies in the continental United States. For 12 species (67%), we found that fledging transitions offspring from comparatively safe nesting environments to more dangerous postfledging ones, resulting in a postfledging bottleneck. This raises an important question: as past research shows that offspring would benefit-improve postfledging survival-by staying in the nest longer: Why then do they fledge so early? Our findings suggest that parents manipulate offspring into fledging early for their own benefit, but at the cost of survival for each individual offspring, reflecting parent-offspring conflict. Early fledging incurred, on average, a 13.6% postfledging survival cost for each individual offspring, but parents benefitted through a 14.0% increase in the likelihood of raising at least one offspring to independence. These parental benefits were uneven across species-driven by an interaction between nest mortality risk and brood size-and predicted the age of fledging among species. Collectively, our results suggest that parent-offspring conflict and associated parental benefits explain variation in fledging age among songbird species and why postfledging bottlenecks occur.

Seasonal survival and reversible state effects in a long-distance migratory shorebird.

Events during one stage of the annual cycle can reversibly affect an individual's condition and performance not only within that stage, but also in subsequent stages (i.e. reversible state effects). Despite strong conceptual links, however, few studies have been able to empirically link individual-level reversible state effects with larger-scale demographic processes. We studied both survival and potential reversible state effects in a long-distance migratory shorebird, the Hudsonian Godwit Limosa haemastica. Specifically, we estimated period-specific survival probabilities across the annual cycle and examined the extent to which an individual's body condition, foraging success and habitat quality during the nonbreeding season affected its subsequent survival and reproductive performance. Godwit survival rates were high throughout the annual cycle, but lowest during the breeding season, only slightly higher during southbound migration and highest during the stationary nonbreeding season. Our results indicate that overwintering godwits foraging in high-quality habitats had comparably better nutritional status and pre-migratory body condition, which in turn improved their return rates and the likelihood that their nests and chicks survived during the subsequent breeding season. Reversible state effects thus appeared to link events between nonbreeding and breeding seasons via an individual's condition, in turn affecting their survival and subsequent reproductive performance. Our study thus provides one of the few empirical demonstrations of theoretical predictions that reversible state effects have the potential to influence population dynamics.

Tradeoffs in the value of biodiversity feature and cost data in conservation prioritization.

Decision-support tools are commonly used to maximize return on investments (ROI) in conservation. We evaluated how the relative value of information on biodiversity features and land cost varied with data structure and variability, attributes of focal species and conservation targets, and habitat suitability thresholds for contrasting bird communities in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Specifically, we used spatial distribution maps for 20 bird species, land values, and an integer linear programming model to prioritize land units (1 km2) that met conservation targets at the lowest estimated cost (hereafter 'efficiency'). Across scenarios, the relative value of biodiversity data increased with conservation targets, as higher thresholds for suitable habitat were applied, and when focal species occurred disproportionately on land of high assessed value. Incorporating land cost generally improved planning efficiency, but at diminishing rates as spatial variance in biodiversity features relative to land cost increased. Our results offer a precise, empirical demonstration of how spatially-optimized planning solutions are influenced by spatial variation in underlying feature layers. We also provide guidance to planners seeking to maximize efficiency in data acquisition and resolve potential trade-offs when setting targets and thresholds in financially-constrained, spatial planning efforts aimed at maximizing ROI in biodiversity conservation.

Optimizing the conservation of migratory species over their full annual cycle.

Limited knowledge of the distribution, abundance, and habitat associations of migratory species hinders effective conservation actions. We use Neotropical migratory birds as a model group to compare approaches to prioritize land conservation needed to support ≥30% of the global abundances of 117 species. Specifically, we compare scenarios from spatial optimization models to achieve conservation targets by: 1) area requirements for conserving >30% abundance of each species for each week of the year independently vs. combined; 2) including vs. ignoring spatial clustering of species abundance; and 3) incorporating vs. avoiding human-dominated landscapes. Solutions integrating information across the year require 56% less area than those integrating weekly abundances, with additional reductions when shared-use landscapes are included. Although incorporating spatial population structure requires more area, geographical representation among priority sites improves substantially. These findings illustrate that globally-sourced citizen science data can elucidate key trade-offs among opportunity costs and spatiotemporal representation of conservation efforts.

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America.

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change.